US-Pakistani tension 'exposes contradictory aims'
WASHINGTON — A surge in US-Pakistani tension this week exposes deep contradictions in their aims for Afghanistan but both sides will try to repair ties because they still need each other, experts say.
The core of the problem, experts say, is Pakistan refuses to cut ties to the Afghan Taliban and other extremists because it fears an eventual US pullout from Afghanistan will create a vacuum that its old rival India will exploit.
They said tensions came to a head now as Washington -- under pressure from an Obama administration goal to begin drawing down forces next year -- loses patience with Islamabad's failure to crush militants on its side of the border.
"Field commanders are feeling pressed by the prospect of having to show improvements because of the looming deadline," said Ashley Tellis, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"They've simply become more aggressive in their efforts to root these guys out," Tellis told AFP.
In the past month, US-led NATO forces based in neighboring Afghanistan have launched a record number of drone strikes against militant sanctuaries in the lawless northwest tribal zone, angering the Pakistani authorities.
Washington and Islamabad are also at odds over the killing of two Pakistani soldiers on Pakistani soil after they were mistaken for militants by a US helicopter crew.
The incident prompted Pakistan to close the main NATO supply route into Afghanistan. The crossing remains shut, despite profuse apologies from top US officials.
"The US strategy, which aims to essentially degrade and weaken the (Afghan) insurgency, relies on Pakistan to confront and if possible eliminate the (militant) sanctuaries," Tellis explained.
"Pakistan's strategy is to hold on to these insurgent groups and protect them as long as is possible because they represent the ace in Pakistan's bargaining strategy with regard to the end game," he added.
Echoing many of Tellis's points is Daniel Markey, a former State Department expert on Pakistan who is now an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), another think tank.
"Part of the problem is that the United States hasn't done a good job convincing Pakistan that it is either in for the long haul or is going to win," Markey said. "Either way Pakistan still feels it needs to hedge its bets."
Though the US is unhappy that Pakistan has failed to hunt down the Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network, Tellis said, it shares Pakistan's goal of eliminating the Pakistan Taliban.
And though he believes Washington should do more to confront Pakistan over the militant sanctuaries, he said "I promise you this (tension) will pass away."
He added that Washington has always sought to "bribe" Islamabad with aid to placate anti-American feelings.
"And so I fully expect that within the next two to three months, we will announce a new assistance package which will run into a few billion dollars," Tellis said.
In addition to offering massive relief for devastating floods, the Obama administration has already launched a 7.5 billion dollar multi-year development assistance package for Pakistan.
Markey also expected matters to be smoothed over.
"We've seen similar bumps before and they tend to get resolved and it's partially because neither side wants to break with the other," Markey told AFP.
The Pakistanis stand to prosper from the NATO supply convoys that pass through Pakistan to Afghanistan and "they stand to prosper from the broader US partnership," he said, referring to the aid programs.
The United States also has a stake in the relationship, he said.
"There is only one thing worse than not having Pakistani cooperation on Haqqani. It's not having Pakistani cooperation across the board," he added.
Micah Zenko, another analyst with the CFR, predicted ties would remain "very strained" in the next few months but would eventually improve again.
However, both Zenko and Tellis warned that a catastrophic anti-US terrorist attack hatched in Pakistan could prompt a sharp shift in the US approach toward Pakistan.
"Absent that kind of catalytic event I don't see any change in the way we relate to Islamabad. It will just be continued bribery for marginal gains," Tellis said.
Copyright © 2010 AFP. All rights reserved.
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