MIDDLE EAST NEWS
Assad's Neighbors Watch Worriedly
APRIL 29, 2011
By JOSHUA MITNICK in Tel Aviv, ANGUS MCDOWELL in Dubai and MARC CHAMPION in Istanbul
Syria's neighbors are watching with ambivalence as President Bashar al-Assad's government confronts opposition rallies that pose the most serious challenge to his autocratic rule.
Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel have all had tense relations with Syria at one time or another. Yet none of them are eager to see the Assad dynasty's four-decade-old rule end because they fear that its downfall would leave a power vacuum in Syria that could further destabilize a region already in turmoil.
Another reminder of Syria's fraught relationship with its neighbors came Thursday when the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, suggested that a target destroyed by Israeli warplanes in the Syrian desert in 2007 may have been the covert site of a future nuclear reactor. The agency said it was continuing to seek further information on the nature of the Dair Alzour site.
Mr. Assad is allied with Iran and the Islamist group Hezbollah, which controls Lebanon's governing coalition, and Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip. That has put him at odds with Israel and many groups in Lebanon, where Syria has exerted dominance and once stationed troops.
Israel worries that if Mr. Assad is pushed into a corner, he might create tensions by attacking targets in the Golan Heights or pushing Hezbollah to attack from Lebanon. Jordan's monarchy is concerned pro-democracy protesters at home would be emboldened by advances by their counterparts in Syria.
Turkey and Iraq have in the past accused Syria of aiding antigovernment militias in their countries, fomenting deadly attacks. Turkey nearly went to war with Syria in 1998, because Ankara believed Syria was harboring leaders of the militant Kurdish Workers' Party but has since dramatically improved ties. Turkey has expressed "deep concern" over the escalating bloodshed in Syria and called on Mr. Assad to begin democratic reforms without delay.
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Last week, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone to Mr. Assad to urge restraint, a spokesman for Mr. Erdogan said.
But in contrast to its early call for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down during the Egyptian protests, Turkey shows no sign of seeking a regime change in Syria.
"What worries us right now is Syria," said a senior Turkish official. "Our longest border is with Syria and we now have visa-free travel between the two countries. Plus, Syria has a Kurdish minority. So any big civil unrest there would be a concern for us." Turkey also has a Kurdish minority.
Iraq is concerned the Syrian uprising could prompt Mr. Assad to revive support for Sunni insurgents who he backed after the 2003 U.S.-led Iraq invasion.
Analysts in the region say a power vacuum in Syria could offer a new opportunity for Iran to expand its influence in the region, strengthening Hezbollah by bypassing Damascus in supply routes to Hezbollah, raising sectarian strife in Lebanon. One scenario that worries Jordanians and Israelis is that Syria's Sunni majority—if it were to replace Mr. Assad's Alawite minority as Syria's ruling power—could throw its support behind the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, which has historic roots in the country but was banned by Mr. Assad because it calls for an Islamist government.
Amid the turmoil, Israel has maintained a policy of silence adopted during Egypt's pro-democracy protests, lest any partisan comments be used in the Arab world to recast Syria's domestic unrest as an Israeli-Arab issue.
"There is no clear contender for the crown," said an Israeli official. "No one knows what will happen—whether Assad can survive, what changes he needs to make, who will go down with him, or what will come in his place. We don't know if Iran will try to interfere to save Assad."
While Mr. Assad is viewed by Israel as close to forces of militant Islam threatening the Jewish state, he has maintained a de facto peace along Syria's border in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967.
Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser under former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, suggested this optimistic scenario: "If at the end of the day, it might turn to be a reasonable secular democratic state, and a state that needs U.S. assistance, then this state might be a partner for a [peace] arrangement."
In Lebanon as recently as January, Syria helped forge a new government after the collapse of a coalition joining Hezbollah and the pro-Western prime minister, Saad Hariri. As a result, Lebanon is now led by an alliance of Hezbollah, the Shiite militia that rules southern Lebanon and enjoys material support from both Iran and Syria.
"If Syria disappears from the scene in Lebanon, it will increase the risk of civil conflict," said Ghanem Nuseibah, a partner at Cornerstone Global Associates and head of Middle East risk at Political Capital. "Even politicians who are not pro-Syrian will be feeling a lot of unease about what's happening in Syria because it upsets the equilibrium and the stability that the Syrian regime has provided."
If Syria's clout in Lebanon weakens, analysts say, the intricate alliances that hold rival sectarian groups together could break apart, leading to a new civil war.
One possibility is that Hezbollah could grow even closer to Iran, creating new friction with other Lebanese parties and—as in the 1970s—turning Lebanon into an arena for broader regional rivalries.
Still, some officials and analysts hold out hope that Mr. Assad's departure would bring greater stability to the region. Many Lebanese, particularly from the Sunni and Christian sects who together make up a majority of the population, would welcome the end of Syrian intervention.
"Lebanon has a democratic process for changing the balance of power," said Nadim Shehadi, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London. "Sometimes this process collapses and violence happens, but in many such cases it's something that Syria had a hand in. So the departure of Assad would be a stabilizing factor for Lebanon."
Write to Marc Champion at marc.champion@wsj.com
(source:http://online.wsj.com)
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