Pakistan News:

US prepares for worst-case scenario with Pakistan nukes

* Musharraf warns snatch-and-grab operation will lead to all-out war

Daily Times Monitor, Pakistan.
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As US-Pakistani relations spiral downward, the specter of a showdown between the increasingly antagonistic allies is garnering more attention, including the worst-case scenario of the US attempting to “snatch” Pakistan’s 100-plus nuclear weapons if it feared they were about to fall into the wrong hands.

That would be a disastrous miscalculation, former president and army chief Pervez Musharraf told NBC News, saying that such an incursion would lead to “total confrontation” between the United States and Pakistan

Privately, current and former US officials say that ensuring the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons has long been a high national security priority, even before the September 11 terrorist attacks, and that plans have been drawn up for dealing with worst-case scenarios in Pakistan.

The greatest success of the US war on terrorism – the military operation that killed Osama bin Laden in his safehouse in May – has fueled the concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, increasing suspicions among US officials that he had support within the ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence service, and emboldening those in Washington who believe an orchestrated campaign of lightning raids to secure Pakistan’s nukes could succeed.

It’s no secret that the United States has a plan to try to grab Pakistan’s nuclear weapons - if and when the president believes they are a threat to either the US or US interests.
In the aftermath of the bin Laden raid, US military officials have testified before Congress about the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and the threat posed by “loose nukes” – nuclear weapons or materials outside the government’s control. And earlier Pentagon reports also outline scenarios in which US forces would intervene to secure nuclear weapons that were in danger of falling into the wrong hands.

But out of fear of further antagonising an important ally, officials have simultaneously tried to tone down the rhetoric by stressing progress made by Islamabad on the security front.
Such discussions of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, now believed to consist of as many as 115 nuclear bombs and missile warheads, have gotten the attention of current and former Pakistani officials. In an interview with NBC News early this month, Musharraf warned that a snatch-and-grab operation would lead to all-out war between the countries, calling it “total confrontation by the whole nation against whoever comes in.”

“These are assets which are the pride of Pakistan, assets which are dispersed and very secure in very secure places, guarded by a corps of 18,000 soldiers,” said a combative Musharraf, who led Pakistan for nearly a decade and is again running for president. “… (This) is not an army, which doesn’t know how to fight. This is an army, which has fought three wars. Please understand that.”

Pervez Hoodboy, Pakistan’s best known nuclear physicist and a human rights advocate, rarely agrees with the former president. But he, too, says a US attempt to take control of Pakistan’s nukes would be foolhardy. 

“They are said to be hidden in tunnels under mountains, in cities, as well as regular air force and army bases,” he said. “A US snatch operation could trigger war; it should never be attempted.”

Despite such comments, interviews with current and former US officials, military reports and even congressional testimony indicate that Pakistan’s weaponry has been the subject of continuing discussions, scenarios, war games and possibly even military exercises by US intelligence and special operations forces regarding so-called “snatch-and-grab” operations.
“It’s safe to assume that planning for the worst-case scenario regarding Pakistan nukes has ready taken place inside the US government,” said Roger Cressey, former deputy director of counterterrorism in the Clinton and Bush White House and an NBC News consultant. “This issue remains one of the highest priorities of the US intelligence community ... and the White House.” 

Mindful of the growing distrust and suspicions between Washington and Islamabad, US officials have publicly tried to defuse concerns that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could be compromised. Adm Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress two weeks ago that Pakistan’s atomic arsenal has become “physically more secure” and the US has seen “training improve” for personnel charged with securing the weapons. 

Publicly, US officials don’t want to embarrass or infuriate Pakistani officials by suggesting such an operation would be possible, a point brought home in a White House press conference on April 29, 2009. After President Barack Obama spoke of the confidence he had in the Pakistani Army’s ability to secure the nuclear weapons, NBC News’ Chuck Todd began to ask if the US military would step in and seize weapons that were at risk.

Obama quickly cut him off. “I’m not going to engage in hypotheticals of that sort. I feel confident that nuclear arsenal will remain out of militant hands, OK?”

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